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Why America Couldn't Wait: The Rush to Leave RAF Fairford
— 4 mins read
Twelve American bombers left the Gloucestershire base in a single day. Donald Trump says it was because of a threat. Marco Rubio calls it routine, and Number 10 insists the base is secure.
The US Air Force has withdrawn all of its bombers from RAF Fairford, little more than a week after the Gloucestershire base was the target of a suspected terror plot.
Twelve B-1B bombers left on Sunday 4 October, according to Air & Space Forces Magazine. Pentagon sources told NBC News that several of them had only just arrived as part of a routine rotation. US officials told The New York Times that more specific threat details had emerged in the 24 hours before the departure. Some aircraft and crews left before their refuelling flights had even been arranged.
A Pentagon official confirmed that "all US bombers that were deployed to RAF Fairford have redeployed to their home stations in the United States", adding that the bomber force remains ready to strike "anywhere, anytime", including from American soil.
How we got here
In the early hours of 27 September, a farmer near Whelford came across three vans blocking a road and men in balaclavas heading into the woods. Five British men in their mid-20s were arrested close to the base on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offences. Police found petrol in the vans but no explosive device. A 25-year-old UK-Iranian dual national was arrested in London on 1 October on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. All six have since been released on bail.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said there are "strong indications" that Iran played a part. Iran denies any involvement.
Three explanations
What happened next depends on who you ask.
Trump left little room for doubt. "They did not fly out by chance," he told reporters at the White House on Monday. "We actually know the people who made this threat." Asked directly whether the planes had been moved because of a threat, he said: "Yeah, I think we can say that." Vice President JD Vance said the bombers were moved "out of an abundance of caution to protect American service members", and that Washington believes Iran was attempting to "commit acts of terrorism", according to reports.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio played it down. "It's not unusual to see movement of assets to different parts of the world based on exercises, redeployments, people changing out and new people coming in," he said.
Downing Street went further still. Asked on Monday whether Fairford was safe, the Prime Minister's spokesman replied: "Yes." Defence Secretary Wes Streeting pointed to "tried-and-tested approaches to defend our bases", and Veterans Minister Calvin Bailey told BFBS the government remained "comfortable with the security and position of the base".
Why the rush?
The likeliest answer is the one Trump gave: the Americans believed the threat was real and still live. Every suspect is back on the street on bail, and Trump has said he would not have released them. Washington has decided it could not wait for the British legal process to run its arguably questionable course.
Washington has decided it could not wait for the British legal process to run its arguably questionable course.
The value of what was at risk matters too. The B-1 is one of the most expensive aircraft in the American arsenal, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard named Fairford a "legitimate target" in July. Moving the planes costs the US relatively little, because they can fly long-range missions straight from American soil.
There may also be a wider political calculation. Sky's US correspondent David Blevins noted that some in Washington believe the White House may be preparing to scale back its campaign against Iran. Fairford has been central to that campaign. At its peak in March, it hosted around two dozen American bombers.
What it means for Britain
Shadow chancellor Andrew Griffith called the withdrawal "a very concerning development". "I don't think that move would make anyone in Britain feel safer in their beds tonight," he told Sky News. "It can't be right that we are not able to protect assets like that of critical national interest."
The contradiction is hard to ignore. Downing Street says the base is safe. The President of the United States says his bombers left because of a threat from people his government can identify. Both cannot be the whole story, and the people of Fairford and Whelford are owed a clearer answer than either has yet given.
