World
The Domestic Reality of War
— 2 mins read
New polling shows 58% of Russians back negotiations
The Levada Centre, Russia's main independent pollster, found in August that 58% of Russians favour peace talks. Just 33% back continuing military action. Putin's own approval has slipped from the mid-80s to the low 70s.
An election with the opposition locked out
The Duma vote was held with genuine opposition already removed from the field. Independent figures are in exile or prison. Alexei Navalny is dead. The liberal Yabloko party was barred from campaigning on an anti-war platform.
Russians face up to 15 years in prison for statements about the military that the state labels false. New rules criminalise even searching for content the authorities call 'extremist', and VPN services are being blocked to cut off workarounds.
Voting with their feet
Russians who cannot speak are leaving instead. Between 500,000 and 1.3 million people, mostly younger and educated, have left since 2022. A fresh wave began this year, driven by fear of a new call-up. Relocation firms report daily inquiries doubling.
An electronic military register now issues digital summonses that trigger automatic exit bans. Reports suggest the Kremlin is quietly preparing another mobilisation now that the election is out of the way. The Kremlin denies it.
Fuel queues in 50 regions
Daily life is getting harder. Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have cut Russian refining capacity by an estimated 20% to 25%, leaving fuel rationed or short in more than 50 regions. Putin publicly admitted the strikes are driving the shortages.
Massive state spending on the war, funded by the Kremlin's oil revenues and reserves, pushed up incomes in defence towns and delivered full employment. Consumer confidence is now falling as prices rise and queues lengthen.
58% of Russians favour peace talks. Just 33% back continuing military action.
The source analysis behind this story presented sanctions as a main cause of visible strain on daily life. It omitted the more direct cause: Ukrainian deep strikes on refineries, which Putin himself has acknowledged.
Recruits from 130 countries
Russia's other pressure point is manpower. Rather than risk another unpopular mobilisation, the military leans on signing bonuses, high contract pay, and foreign recruits. Ukrainian estimates put foreign fighters at around 27,000 to 28,000, drawn from more than 130 countries, with large numbers from Africa.
Amnesty International, which is funded by member donations rather than governments, says some of that recruitment involves deception and coercion amounting to human trafficking. Early casualty rates among foreign recruits are reported to be high.
Elite cohesion is holding and there is no organised anti-war movement. But a majority of the public now wants out, the fuel crisis is biting, and a decision on fresh mobilisation is expected in the months ahead.
